By Dan Pope, UCCW Director & Certified Broadcast Meteorologist

R. Clayton Brough and David R. James, UCCW Climatologists

June 7, 2008

See also UCCW's Latest Long-Range Outlook for Utah

     As of June 7, 2008, Northern Utah has experienced wetter than normal weather for two of the past three winter seasons. Although the 2006-2007 water year and winter was much drier than normal, the colder than normal 2007-2008 winter and spring weather has allowed a wetter winter cycle of heavy snow pack to melt into lakes and reservoirs throughout the Northern part of Utah. Unfortunately, Southern Utah did not experience enough winter and spring precipitation and mountain snowfall to help the drier than normal conditions. Subsequently, drought conditions persist in this area.

Beginning in late March and continuing through April and May of 2007, much drier than normal weather pushed much of Utah back into drought conditions. To some degree, the six-year long drought that began in 1998 and continued until the spring of 2005 returned, and we were on the verge of adding more dry weather to a much longer dry period. However, that has changed in Northern Utah According to NOAA's most recent U.S. Drought Monitor, (For further statistical analysis and precipitation projections, see NOAA's Seasonal Drought Outlook and Long-Term Drought Indicator, and UDWR's Utah Drought Conditions.)

     With Utah's drought conditions improving over Northern Utah, when might our next long-term drought occur? According to dendroclimatology and climatological statistics, Utah has experienced 10 droughts in the past 205 years-with the longest one lasting 14 years, from 1870 to 1883. Interestingly, the droughts of the 1800's lasted an average of 10 years, with 16 years between drought periods. During the 1900's, droughts lasted an average of 8 years, with 13 years between drought periods. So over the past two centuries, droughts have become a little more frequent but not as long-lasting. According to climatological frequencies and probabilities, Utah could possibly experience another drought period lasting six to ten years beginning sometime within the next 10 to 16 years (or sometime during 2015-2021). In the meantime--and because of our expanding population and water use--we should increase our water conservation efforts and improve and maintain our water storage facilities.